American politicians and pundits continue to act as if American power has the same influence around the world that it had 10 years ago. They make an assumption that the world still cowers in fear of American economic and military dominance.
But when you stop and look at recent global events, doesn’t it seem like American influence has changed? Don’t these events make you wonder if America is still the superpower that dominates global policy?
Doesn’t America now seem like an aging superpower struggling to stay ahead of the consequences of economic warfare?
The real question is: America, do you feel in charge of the world?
Recent Events That Signal A Shift in World Power
Let’s document some key events of the past year. Gradually they developed, then suddenly they placed the world into a fight for a new world order.
- The US withdrawal from Afghanistan was a failure in American power projection and the entire world watched and took note
- The Russian invasion of Ukraine took place despite seemingly harsh Western sanctions
- Western sanctions included Central Bank foreign reserves assets, and this raises a question: will countries rely on a bank system that can so easily freeze their assets?
- China refuses to condemn Russia and refuses to side with the West – Is a new alliance forming?
- India takes a similar, non-committed approach by making deals with Russia for discounted oil
- Saudi Arabia ignores Biden’s outreach – They sent POTUS straight to voicemail
- Biden goes begging to countries the US has bullied, asking them for help
- Biden makes a public gaffe and states he seeks regime change, then walks it back
- Putin turns the screws on the West and demands oil payments in Rubles or else oil shipments stop
- The Ruble’s “round trip” ie: the Ruble value is back to pre-war levels, not what you would expect from a country under massive economic strain
- Biden takes unprecedented steps to deploy Strategic Petroleum Reserves – a “break glass in case of emergency” moment
The Consequences of These Events
In the backdrop of these events, inflation has reached 40-year highs and is climbing.
The war in Ukraine created economic contagion rippling beyond Ukraine and Russia. Fuel costs and the prices of key commodities have skyrocketed around the world. This includes corn, wheat, fertilizers, and several resources used to manufacture semiconductors.
What this means is that input costs for a variety of goods are higher. Tracking the second order consequences, that means the costs of many goods are going to rise dramatically in the coming months. And these price shocks are not contained to Russia and Ukraine.
Food in American grocery stores is rising. The costs of American agriculture are rising, which is already having an impact on the decisions farmers make. Rising input costs are changing the economics of some crops.
Rising fuel costs means that costs to ship goods will increase and, in many cases, will impact the economics of manufacturing in the first place.
The grand consequence is that we can expect shortages across a variety of everyday things. We can expect economic hardships. They are already playing out. And the entire world is watching.
American Vulnerability Is Now An Opportunistic Objective
We cannot view the context of these economic consequences separately.
As I’ve said before, America’s lousy retreat from Afghanistan signaled a resignation as the world cop. Nations now also see the teetering American economic situation and identify it as an opportunity for self-advancement.
They understand that the beast is wounded and disoriented. America isn’t accustomed to economic hardship. By pressing the situation, other nations can meaningfully claim more value from the economic world order. And this is playing out in the events we’re witnessing. Russian aggression, China strategic indifference, Indian self-interest, and Saudi Arabia’s cold shoulder all signify the formation of a new geopolitical order.
And so, we must ask ourselves, is the Russian objective still to take Ukraine? Or has it changed given the above circumstances? Has the primary objective shifted to focus on unseating the world’s superpower?
If you ask me, the situation has changed the Russian objective. Putin has identified the opportunity and is exploiting it via prolonged economic warfare with the West. He’s bleeding America in pursuit of a kill by a thousand cuts.
This change of objective is important context because it explains what the hell is happening around the world and should influence policy moving forward.
Nothing Is Set In Stone
This is a dynamic situation that is by no means settled in stone. America is still a country that can project meaningful power and influence around the world. And it’s not too late for the Biden administration to reclaim the high ground.
But you have to ask yourself, are we trending in the right direction? Are the politicians and the talking heads saying the things that would instill confidence in a course correction? Does it seem as though the US dollar and the American economy are in for a temporary rough patch or a meaningful change in standing on the global stage?
What Matters Now? The Approaching US Midterm Elections
And so, we are now roughly half a year away from the American Midterm elections. Do we expect these problems will get better or worse in the months ahead?
It’s safe to assume they’ll get worse because many of the economic red flags are lagging indicators. This means policy will constantly attempt to course correct after problems visibly emerge.
Now we have to wonder, will the current administration leverage the American future to buy votes in the short term? Will the progressives expand public debt and use social spending programs to alleviate problems faced by their voters?
And will that type of strategy work come election day? Or will a political reckoning take place with voters punishing the current administration for their financial hardships and lost American prestige on the global stage?
An Emergent Multipolar World Order Is A Buy Signal For Bitcoin
From my perspective, I expect the Democrats to rely on their progressive playbook over the next few months. They’ll try to buy support using aggressive social spending programs while maintaining an aggressive anti-Russian/China stance. This will be a disastrous mixture for US economic hegemony.
It will ultimately harm the value of the dollar. The net result will be a new geopolitical dynamic with America, Europe, Russia, China, and India vying to split global dominance. And because of this fragmenting version of globalism, it will be a fertile ground for a new global reserve asset.
The moral of this story is that 2023 could prove to be Bitcoin’s spring. Can you imagine a better hedge for the coming months of uncertainty? In this timeframe expect rising inflation and additional waves of government stimulus which are likely to be within the US administrations playbook.
Bitcoin is the globalists hedge against rising nationalism, economic warfare, and an emergent multipolar future. The bottom line is that now seems like the idea time to accumulate in earnest.
I’ll end this rosy think piece by returning to its thematic question. The scene from Batman: The Dark Knight Rises just seems so accurate for the times we find ourselves in. Just imagine Putin, like Bane, saying to the world, America, do you feel in charge?
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